1. Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) today published Brunei Darussalam's Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for September 2024. The index is based on surveys conducted on more than 500 micro, small, medium, and large businesses from 11 economic sectors in Brunei Darussalam, across all districts.

2. The monthly index is designed to measure the level of business confidence/sentiment in the country covering various aspects including current and future business conditions, investment, employment of workers, as well as costs of running the businesses. Therefore, the BSI serves as a leading macroeconomic indicator with its forward-looking element in the country.         

3. The BSI and sub-indices can be interpreted as below:

4. In September 2024, the main headline index, the Current Business Conditions sub-index, was at 50.2, indicating that, in general, businesses expected improved business conditions in September 2024 compared to August 2024. While views varied across sectors, the overall outlook on business conditions remained positive, with expectations of increased production and activity and a return in domestic demand for goods and services in certain sectors as the long August 2024 school holiday period ended. On the other hand, some businesses expected lower performance due to factors such as unfavourable weather, fewer projects, and work delays. The index for one month (1M) ahead stood at 50.2, signalling sustained optimism among businesses. This suggests expectations of higher demand for goods and services in October 2024, which in turn is expected to drive more projects and production levels during the month. 

5. The Investment sub-index stood at 50.2 for September 2024, 50.0 for one month (1M) ahead, and 50.1 for three months (3M) ahead. Following the sentiment in previous months, businesses expected to increase their investments in the current month and continue to do so in the next few months, although at a slower pace. Businesses indicated plans of investing in various areas, including purchasing new equipment and machinery, upgrading existing assets, and restocking inventories in preparation for higher demand toward the year-end. Additional investments were also expected in training and upskilling employees and in relocation and renovation efforts associated with expanding premises, including opening new branches. 

6. The Employment sub-index was 50.2 for the current month and 50.2 for 1M ahead. Sustaining the upward trend in recent months, businesses expected to continue hiring new employees, including part-time staff, not only to replace outgoing staff and meet current operational needs but also to support expansion plans and assist with ongoing and upcoming projects. 

7. The Costs sub-index for the current month and 1M ahead were recorded at 50.1 and 49.6. In general, businesses expected higher operational costs in September, which was in line with the overall increase in activity and headcount during the month. Additionally, some businesses saw increased maintenance and repair-related expenses, particularly in light of recent poor weather conditions. Meanwhile, a few businesses highlighted persisting challenges related to delayed payments from clients, which led to some companies incurring interest and late payment fees due to the inability to repay loans timely. As for October 2024, businesses expected lower or more normal operating costs than September as much of the ad-hoc and seasonal expenses related to maintenance, preparation for new projects, and end-of-year demand would have been incurred in September. 

Note: 1M – one month, 3M – three months

8. In terms of economic sectors, seven out of 11 sectors expected optimistic business conditions in September 2024. The Finance & Insurance sector showed the highest optimism with an index of 50.4 as businesses expected a pickup in activity and other factors such as more take-up of new products. The second most optimistic sector was the Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries & Livestock sector, with expectations of increased production and higher demand following the end of the school holiday period. Following suit were the Oil & Gas Related, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Hotels & Restaurant, Manufacturing, and Other Private Services sectors, whose optimism were similarly driven by projections of higher production and sales and increased domestic spending. On the other hand, only the Transport & Communication sector reported pessimism in September 2024, primarily since September is an off-peak month for travel-related companies, alongside other issues such as payment delays faced by other businesses within the sector. Meanwhile, the Construction, Real Estate & Ownership of Dwellings and Health & Education sectors expected similar business conditions as August 2024.

9. In terms of business size, only large-sized businesses reported expectations of better business conditions in September 2024 compared to the previous month. These businesses generally expected an uptick in activities due to increased monthly production and demand. Meanwhile, micro-, small-, and medium-sized businesses expected business conditions to remain unchanged in September 2024 from the previous month. 

10. The time-series charts for the BSI and its sub-indices since August 2020 can be found in ANNEX 1. For more information on the BSI, members of the public can refer to the technical notes on the methodology and statistics on the BDCB website at www.bdcb.gov.bn and follow updates on the BSI through future press releases and BDCB’s Instagram account @centralbank.brunei.

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Brunei Darussalam for September 2024

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Brunei Darussalam for September 2024 (MY)

Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Brunei Darussalam for September 2024 (Others)